Cannabis Sales to Reach $50B by 2030
The U.S. cannabis industry is in a dynamic and rapidly evolving state, characterized by significant growth, ongoing state-level legalization and persistent federal challenges.
The U.S. cannabis market was estimated at $38.50 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around $45.35 billion in 2025, according to the American Psychological Association. It’s expected to continue its robust growth, potentially reaching $87.0 billion by 2035.
An article by BioSpace credits this unprecedented growth to increasing acceptance for both medical and recreational use, along with a rise in research activities exploring cannabis’s medicinal properties.
As these foundational shifts continue to reshape the industry’s trajectory, wholesale cannabis commerce platform LeafLink has published the Spring Edition of its State of the U.S. Cannabis Industry report, showcasing just how rapidly the industry is growing.
Data published in the report is sourced from state-level sales reports through May 2025, LeafLink internal data and extensive analysis of over 332,000 on-platform SKUs and more than one million annual orders.
Key Growth Drivers for Cannabis
According to the report, LeafLink projects U.S. cannabis sales will reach $50–55 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of ~9%, by 2030, with huge growth potential in New York and Ohio.
“New York’s growth is largely due to retail license issuance by regulators,” says Ben Burstein, LeafLink market analyst and report author. “The state is opening up very strongly. At the beginning of 2024, New York was making about 20 million in sales. At the beginning of this year, the state was making about 120 million in sales.”
Ohio’s growth is also strong because of conversions from the medical market to the adult-use market, according to Burstein.
“Another key area of growth is store licensing,” he says. “Regulators are giving each of the large-scale cultivators three additional store licenses. Existing comprehensive retail stores are also being given an additional license. So, in total, there are over 300 stores in the state.”
Inventory Management
While there are some influential growth areas in the cannabis industry, there are also some pain points. One of them being inventory management.
According to the report, inventory remains the cannabis industry’s most urgent operational challenge. Brands and retailers lose an estimated $10 billion annually due to poor assortment management, split between two major drivers:
Overstocking. Retailers are carrying an average of 100 days’ worth of inventory. That is over three times the 30-day target seen in adjacent industries like convenience or tobacco.
Stock-outs. Being out of a customer’s preferred brand drives churn and results in valuable lost customers. Based on case studies with LeafLink partners, stock-outs are responsible for ~6% in lost sales, equating to roughly $2B annually in direct sales.
To help improve these inventory inefficiencies, operators are adopting real-time sell-through data, automated reordering and data driven assortment strategies, according to the report. Utilizing this technology is helping businesses see stronger margins, faster cash conversion and more consistent customer loyalty.
Market Balance and Stability
The U.S. cannabis industry continues to grow, with both retail and wholesale sales reaching new heights and state-level policies shaping regional dynamics.
Arizona, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania, for example, have seen modest price recovery, according to the report. This recovery has helped to stabilize the national outlook over more mature markets.
“The reason these markets are seeing improvements in pricing is because cultivation was down over the last six months,” Burstein explains. “Their harvests this year are slightly smaller than what we were expecting based on last year.”
Some of the operators are cutting down on how much they’re growing because their wholesale pricing didn’t make sense to have a large-scale production, according to Burstein. This drawback in supply is resulting in price improvements.
“It’s still not perfect or balanced, and we still see too much supply in the markets, but it’s better than where we used to be,” Burstein notes.
Top-Selling Cannabis Products
The LeafLink report also showcased the top-selling cannabis products. Flower remains the most popular, making up approximately 40% of retail sales and 39% of wholesale sales.
Following flower, the most popular categories are cartridges (~21% of wholesale sales), edibles (14%), pre-rolls (14%) and concentrates (12%).
Aggregated platform flower prices hit ~$1,020/lb through the end of May, according to the report, down ~$100/lb since last summer. This is mainly driven by outdoor flower harvests causing oversupply in several states, as Burstein mentioned earlier.
Pricing will likely continue to decline over the next six months as bulk flower is harvested and processed into packaged product units, according to the report, although declines in cultivation capacity in California, Oregon and Colorado should continue to improve pricing in mature markets.
Despite some industry challenges, Burstein predicts the market will continue to grow.
“By 2030, we expect U.S. cannabis to be a $50-55 billion market,” he says. “We forecast most incremental sales in the coming years to be driven by new license issuance in key states such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Ohio and Minnesota. Long-term, we anticipate growth to come from large population centers yet to legalize and approve robust market structures.”
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