SipSource Predicts Flattening of Spirits Declines Through 2026

SipSource released its latest quarterly forecast update for the Spirits category, projecting rolling 12-month 9L case depletion growth rates through Q2 2026.

The newest update reveals several emerging trends that signal stabilizing negative growth rates by the end of 2025, signaling a shift away from the steep and growing decline levels seen between 2022 and 2024:

Core Spirits in total are projected to bottom out at -4.56% growth by the end of 2025 before recovering slightly to -4.09% by Q2 2026.

The severe downward trend and negative growth rates we had seen for Rum, U.S. Whiskey, Vodka and Brandy/Cognac are expected to largely flatten by the first half of 2026, albeit in negative territory.

Tequila/Agave, a category that has experienced significant change in the level of increases over the past few years, is on a forecasted path to stabilization, nearing  +1% rolling 12-month growth by mid-2026—buoyed especially by sustained consumer interest in premium tiers (from $20-$100).

“The flattening of negative growth curves may signal an encouraging bottoming out of trends in key categories,” said SipSource analyst Danny Brager in a news release. “While challenges remain, the data shows a clear transition period—giving producers, distributors, and retailers some reason for optimism as they plan for what’s next.”

To reflect the potential impact of U.S. trade policy changes, some pessimistic growth scenarios have been adjusted to model anticipated market disruptions, according to SipSource.

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